The world's population will grow, age, live longer and migrate less. The world's population will grow, age, live longer and migrate less When the world's population reaches 8 billion

MOSCOW, July 25 - RIA Novosti. The global population will reach 10 billion in 2053, but the number of residents in Russia and Ukraine will decrease by 7.9 and 9 million, and in Japan by a “record” 24.7 million, reports the Washington Population Bureau (PRB). ).

“Despite the general decline in birth rates across the planet, the rate of growth of the Earth’s population will remain at a high level, which will be enough to “reach” the 10 billion mark. Of course, the picture in different regions will be strikingly different - for example, the number of inhabitants Europe will continue to decline, while Africa's population will double by 2050,” said Jeffrey Jordan, president and director of the Bureau.

The non-profit organization is now one of the world's leading global population forecasters, publishing annual reports and estimates of global population growth since 1962. This year, Jordan reports, the forecasts were improved by adding six new demographic indicators that take into account how the availability of different resources affects population growth.

According to new PRB forecasts, the world's population will approach 9.9 billion by 2050, and in 2053 it will cross the 10 billion mark. Much of this growth will occur in Africa, with its population expected to reach 2.5 billion by this date. At the same time, the number of inhabitants of America will increase by only 223 million, Asia - by 900 million, and the number of inhabitants of Europe will decrease by approximately 12 million.

The world's population will exceed 10 billion people by 2100The world's population will exceed 10 billion by 2100, and perhaps approach 15 billion if the world's birth rate increases slightly, according to a report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), presented on Wednesday in London.

The main socio-demographic problem of this growth will be that almost all of this growth will occur in the most underdeveloped countries on Earth. PRB estimates that the population of the world's 48 least developed countries will double by 2050 to almost two billion people. At the same time, in 29 countries on this list, almost all of which are in Africa, the population will more than double. Niger's population, for example, will triple by mid-century.

On the other side of the “table of ranks” the situation is the opposite - the population will decrease mainly in all developed countries except the United States, in a total of 42 countries of the world. The traditional “leader” in this regard will be Japan, where the number of inhabitants will decrease by almost 25 million, and its close competitors will be Russia, Ukraine and Romania.

The world population on January 1, 2016 will be almost 7.3 billion peopleThe most populated country, according to statistics, is China, followed by India and the United States. Russia, with 142.423 million inhabitants, ranks ninth.

With all this, the top three “ten” countries in terms of population will remain the same - India, China and the USA. There will be a series of reshuffles below, with Nigeria moving up to fourth, Indonesia down to fifth and Brazil down to seventh.

Such population growth in the poorest and most deprived countries of the world, according to PRB experts, speaks to the urgent need for a speedy transition to a sustainable development economy to provide this mass of people with the necessary resources and basic necessities without causing critical harm to the planet.

If evolution is correct, then the population of the Earth would be 75,000 people per square centimeter in 3 million years (7500 people per 1 cm2), despite all the wars and natural disasters! Then the world would be overcrowded, but it is not.

From a biblical point of view, everything fits: The Bible says that in the days of Noah only 8 people survived the Flood and over 4400 years the population of 7.5 billion people is understandable.

Difficulties

Evolutionary communities o is definitely having a hard time reconciling the numbers to make this ridiculous scenario possible. If we assume, on the basis of biblical genealogies, that the flood occurred approximately 4300 years ago and also against evolution, the duration of a generation is 38 years, then it turns out that only 113 generations have passed since the Great Flood of the time of Noah.

According to these calculations, there should be approximately seven billion people on Earth - 6.7 × 109 . This is very close to the population size to that provided by the American Census Bureau - 6.9 × 109.

This evidence supports the young age of the Earth and humanity. Only a dishonest person, having examined such clear evidence, will not attach any importance to it.

Yet this attitude prevails in many scientific circles today. The same people who claim that they, unlike believers, are those who examine the evidence without prejudice and draw only those conclusions that are supported by that evidence - turn away from the evidence when it does not agree with their goals and plans.

This definitely reflects the mentality of many in the scientific community. Evolution cannot explain human existence. The biblical model can... and does explain.

Human population growth. An annual increase of less than 0.5% of 8 people could provide today's population in 4,500 years. Where are all the people if we have been on Earth much longer?

If people, while on this planet, reproduced their offspring for one million years, then, even according to the most conservative estimates, more than 26,000 generations have passed. But currently there are about seven and a half billion people. However, according to the equation and statistics today there should be more 100 billion man on Earth, if, of course, reproduction began a million years ago. To visualize this number, think about this analogy.

Overpopulation of the planet is a MYTH based only on speculation, ignorance and active propaganda of interested organizations. At the moment, 7.5 billion people can be comfortably accommodated on territories Australia , which occupies only some 5% of the world's landmass + each person will have about a thousand square meters, and their living conditions will be very comfortable.

And if this is done theoretically, then it will still remain uninhabited about one million square kilometers.

Another reason. If people have lived on earth for tens of thousands of years, then the population of the earth should be larger and the number of burials should also be much larger. However, the population of the world is quite consistent with the fact that the world's population was once reduced to 8 people during the flood.

If over several decades the number of people has increased by 1 billion, then how can about 7.5 billion people live on earth?

1 billion - 1820
2 billion - 1927
3 billion - 1960
4 billion - 1974
5 billion - July 1987
6 billion - October 1999
7 billion - October 31, 2011
7.5 billion - March 1, 2017

Length of documented history. Origin of various civilizations, writing, etc. at about the same time, several thousand years ago.

"Stone Age" human skeletons and artifacts. They are not enough even for 100 thousand years with a population of only 1 million, and what can we say about an even larger number (10 million?)

Common cultural "myths" talk about the recent division of the peoples of the world. An example of this is the frequency of stories about a flood destroying the earth. For example, Ancient Chinese hieroglyphs store the history of Genesis.

Origin of agriculture. It is believed that agriculture was founded 10 thousand years ago, while, according to the same chronology, it is believed that man has lived on earth for more than 200 thousand years. Obviously, someone must have figured out how to plant plants and get their own food much earlier.

Languages. Similarities in languages ​​that are said to be many tens of thousands of years apart argue against their supposed age.

Population growth. To determine population growth, it is necessary to know three values: the average number of children in a family, the average age of a generation and the average life expectancy. Using these generally accepted parameters, we will calculate, based on chapter 5 of the book of Genesis, the approximate number of inhabitants of the antediluvian world.

We get the following data: the average life expectancy is 500 years, the average age of a generation is 100 years, and if we assume that the average number of children in a family is six, it turns out that 235 million people lived on the planet before the flood. If we take into account that, according to the theory of evolution, man has existed on earth for a million years, and the average age of a generation is 35 years (taking into account epidemics, wars, and accidents), then it turns out that there have been 28,600 generations on earth.

And if we take into account that each family on average had two children (we are deliberately underestimating this figure), it turns out that by our time the population of the earth should have amounted to an immeasurable fantastic figure: ten to the power of five thousand people! According to the study of world population growth, our planet exists more than 4000 years after the flood, which exactly corresponds to the data of the Bible (H. M. Morris ed. Scientific Creationism (public school), San Diego, 1974, p. 149-157; 185-196.)

Time flies: 25 years ago the world was a completely different place. Remember what devices we used to communicate back then, what we drove, what we wore and what we ate. What awaits us in a quarter of a century?

We grow old and multiply

Half of humanity today is a little over 30 years old. Scientists call this figure the median age of the planet's population. For comparison: in 1950, the median age on Earth did not exceed 24 years. According to forecasts, in a quarter of a century it will exceed 35.

And there are more and more of us on the planet. If the conditional “median person” is in his early 30s today, that means he was born in 1985. Do you know how many of us there were then? 4.8 billion. And this winter the world's population reached 7.3 billion people.

The UN demographic forecast for 2040 is that the planet's population will be 8.9 billion people.

This has never happened in the history of mankind.

For clarity: in 1200, 500 million people lived on Earth. The year 1200 is a time when the troops of the Mongol Empire had not yet even arrived in Rus'. Batu Khan would lead his hordes against the Slavic principalities only in 1237.

The world population doubled only 600 years later: when Napoleon invaded Russia. In 1812, there were a billion people living on the planet. And these are normal growth rates. And now we are seeing abnormal things. And stabilization of the world population, according to the calculations of Academician Kapitsa, will occur only by 2135. Then there will be 14 billion people living on the planet! Moreover, UN experts believe that the increase will occur exclusively at the expense of the poorest countries.

Apple trees on Mars

Colonization of the planets of the solar system is coming.

An innovative way to combat drought: a cactus with a tap (Brazil). Photo: EPA

The Americans have ambitious plans: Lockheed management announced that the first spacecraft with people will be sent to Mars orbit in 2028. In 2030, the first man will land on the Red Planet.

A Chinese robotic vehicle may go to Mars in 2020, and taikonauts (Chinese astronauts) will land on the Moon before 2036.

But by that time the taikonauts will have the opportunity to meet on the Moon... our compatriots. According to plans, by 2025 Russia will establish regular manned flights to the Moon. For this purpose, the new Federation spacecraft and the improved Angara carrier will be used. Start - from the Vostochny cosmodrome. It is expected to send 1-2 missions per year.

In addition, RSC Energia and the American Boeing have developed two options for a joint station in lunar orbit. They plan to put it into operation at the end of the 2020s. The duration of the expeditions will be from 30 to 360 days.

Meanwhile, our scientists, using the Luna-26 spacecraft, are already preparing to select the optimal location for landing on the Moon. The launch of Luna 26 is scheduled for 2020.

For a sip of water

But on Earth you will have to think about resources, and first of all about drinking water.

Forecasts for Russia with its fresh water reserves look favorable. The same cannot be said about the rest of the world.

According to the UN, by 2030 the demand for fresh water will exceed its reserves by 40%. The countries of the Middle East, Central Asia, and part of Africa are at particular risk.

Among European countries, San Marino, Macedonia, Turkey, Greece and Spain may face severe water shortages. The Middle East will suffer the most from climate change: Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Palestine, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Oman.

Everyone's in town

Water consumption is increasing not only due to the rapidly growing world population, but also due to the scale of farming activities. And especially - industrial enterprises in megacities. In addition, more and more people are settling in cities.

Experts say that within a quarter of a century, the majority of the population of developing countries will live in cities.

Higher degree

Scientists at the US Center for Atmospheric Research have put forward a sensational hypothesis. By 2040, the planet's climate will change beyond recognition. Southern Europe, Latin America, most of Asia, the Middle East, the central part of the USA and Africa will turn into continuous arid deserts. In Northern Europe, Alaska, Russia, Canada and India, the opposite process will occur - endless rains and floods. The Earth is on the eve of the apocalypse, researchers say.

And here is the latest forecast: according to a report by UNEP (UN Environment Program), in the preparation of which 1.2 thousand scientists from 160 countries participated, the state of the environment is deteriorating faster than previously thought. Glaciers are melting, the temperature of the Earth's surface is rising.

The average annual temperature near the North Pole is rising twice as fast as in other regions. Glaciers are melting rapidly in Greenland, Alaska and Canada, the Southern Andes and Asia. This will inevitably lead to an increase in sea levels. Since the beginning of the last century, the water level off the coast of New York has risen by 30 cm.

Brides in great demand

For the first time in 250 years, there are more men than women in Europe. Especially in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Germany and the UK. But similar processes are taking place in other countries of the “golden billion”.

Sociologists name two reasons. First: thanks to progress in the field of health care and occupational safety, life expectancy for men has increased. And the main thing: due to the arrival of millions of refugees, mostly male, from Africa and the Middle East. Appreciate women, in the future there will not be enough of them for everyone.

The Great Movement

In light of the migration crisis in Europe, forecasts regarding migrants take on particular importance. According to the UN, over 15 years the number of migrants in the world has grown by 40% and last year reached 244 million people. Of these, only 20 million are refugees. The rest are moving around the planet in search of a better life or fleeing from impending disasters - from zones of drought and floods.

The planet is getting more and more crowded. Scene in the suburbs of Dhaka, Bangladesh: locals have learned how to transfer without going down to the overcrowded land. Photo: AP

There will be more and more migrants every year. A powerful incentive is the growing inequality between the developed countries of Europe, North America, Asia and the countries of the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and partly Asia.

As sociologists remind, these poorest countries account for 80% of the birth rate, and huge masses of uneducated and disillusioned youth accumulate there. The trend of Arab-Muslim young unemployed people moving to Europe is predicted to continue. Moreover, up to 70% of the 20 million European Muslims do not have a normal education and do not know the language of the host country.

In a quarter of a century, we simply won’t recognize Europe.

Robot competitors

Finally, another scientific and technological revolution is coming. British experts, based on an analysis of the most in-demand vacancies, came to the conclusion that by 2035-2040, half of all jobs in the world could be occupied by new generation robots. At risk are service personnel, industrial workers, salespeople, cooks, waiters, and teachers.

The prospects for oil workers are also poor. The world will be forced to switch to renewable fuel sources: sun, wind and water. By 2040, these sources will cover a third of the electricity needs of the world's developed economies.

Electric cars and 3D

We will drive mainly electric vehicles. Their batteries will be able to provide a range of up to 300 km on a single charge in the next 10-15 years. Experts also talk about an upcoming reduction in their cost by 50% (from the price of current electric vehicles).

The service life of such machines will be at least 7 years, their weight will be reduced by three times (the machine will weigh no more than 100 kg), and the recharging time will be reduced dramatically.

The development of 3D printing also promises great prospects. These printers, with built-in artificial intelligence, will be able to print everything from spare parts for an electric car to spare human organs.

I got into an accident, 3D printed a new bumper, and at the same time a nose to replace the damaged one - and moved on.

Can the Earth withstand overpopulation? The issue of world population is very acute. Its exponential and uneven growth could have catastrophic consequences if we do not prepare for it.

In 2013, humanity reached 7.9 billion people. It is expected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030 and 9.6 billion by 2050. If that's not enough, consider 11.2 billion in 2100.

Most of the growth will be seen in nine specific countries: India, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Nigeria, the United States and Indonesia.

Population growth rates

It is not an increase in fertility that leads to growth. Rather, it will play a role in increasing life expectancy. World population growth peaked in the 1960s and has been declining steadily since the 70s. The figure of 1.24% is the growth rate recorded ten years ago and occurs annually. Today it is 1.18% per year.

Population growth in developed countries has slowed because it is too expensive for large parts of the population to have a child, especially since the Great Recession, when young people were forced to spend long periods of time on education and careers, spending their most productive years in lecture halls and office cubicles.

Although overall fertility is declining worldwide, the report said the researchers used a "low-variance" population growth scenario.

Meanwhile, families with large numbers of children are becoming a thing of the past, and public health officials are warning that a "silver tsunami" is coming. Globally, the number of people aged 60 or over is expected to double by 2050 and triple by 2100.

As young people do not replace adult residents, the number of taxpayers for Medicare and abroad for socialized medicine will decline.

Europe's population is forecast to fall by 14%. Society in European countries, like Japan, is in favor of adjusting the aging population. But a fertility deficit probably won't fix the problem.

In the US, the number of Alzheimer's patients is expected to bankrupt Medicare as no cure has been found. “Developed countries have pretty much painted themselves into a corner,” said Carl Haub. He is a senior demographer at the Population Reference Bureau.

Role of African countries

Most of the growth will occur in developing countries. Moreover, more than half is predicted in Africa, the financially poorest continent, whose resources are almost exhausted. The 15 high-income countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, are expected to increase the number of children per woman at a rate of just over 5% (five children per woman). Nigeria's population is likely to surpass that of the United States by 2050, becoming the third largest demographic.

The population in developed countries is expected to remain stable at 1.3 billion. In some developing countries, such as Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, India and China, the average number of children per woman is falling rapidly. This trend is expected to continue.

India's population expected to exceed China's by 2022

We often think of China as the most populous country in the world, but India is on track to overtake it by 2022. At this point, 1.45 billion citizens will live in both countries. Subsequently, India is expected to surpass China. As India's population grows, the number of Chinese citizens will decline.

Lifespan

In terms of life expectancy, there will be an increase in both developed and developing countries. Globally, life expectancy is likely to be 76 years between 2045 and 2050. If nothing changes, she will reach 82 years of age between 2095 and 2100.

Towards the end of the century, people in developing countries will be able to expect to live up to 81 years, while in developed countries 89 years will become the norm. However, there are concerns that this phenomenon will cause the developing world to suffer even more than it does today.

“The concentration of population growth in the poorest countries poses many challenges that will make it more difficult to eradicate poverty and inequality, fight hunger and malnutrition, and expand education and health services,” says John Wilmot. He is the Director of the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

Reducing resources

It will be very difficult for people to withstand the depletion of resources. Minerals, fossil fuels, wood and water may become scarce in several regions of the world.

Since wars are often resource-related and water use is expected to rise to 70-90% by mid-century, without improved agricultural practices and smarter use it could become as expensive as oil and drag countries into violent conflicts. Water supplies are already a big problem in some regions. India and China, for example, have already clashed twice over this resource.

Climate change

Climate change is also likely to reduce the amount of arable land, causing food shortages as well as loss of biodiversity. These processes are likely to occur at a rapid pace.

To help reduce the world's population, UN researchers suggest investing in reproductive health and family planning. These programs are especially relevant in developing countries.

This report is based on data from 233 countries providing demographic data, as well as the 2010 census.