Russia proposed that Japan jointly build a bridge from Hokkaido to Sakhalin. Will the bridge to Sakhalin reach Japan? Distance between Sakhalin and Hokkaido

Discussions about building a road from the mainland to Sakhalin have been going on for decades. Even under Stalin, it was planned to build a strategic tunnel under the Tatar Strait. There is still a legend that a secret underground route for quickly transporting troops to the largest Russian island was built, but then it was mothballed. The topic of a secret tunnel is very popular among passengers languishing in Sakhalin ports waiting for the weather, but, alas, the tunnel is still nothing more than a dream. And yet, the idea of ​​a road to Sakhalin does not die, because there is great economic interest in this project.

As you know, the Japanese have long ago created a unified transport network, connecting all the main islands. The last to join this network was the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido - from the northern railway station in Wakkanai to Sakhalin is just a stone's throw away, you just have to cross the La Perouse Strait. Japan is not averse to extending the road further - from Hokkaido to Sakhalin, but on the condition that Russia does its part of the work, that is, connects Sakhalin with the mainland. In this case, a convenient route will arise for the transit of Japanese goods to Europe. That is why in recent years there has been renewed talk about the need to create a transport artery connecting Sakhalin Island with the mainland. True, now instead of a tunnel they are proposing to build a bridge across the strait. So, the first option is a tunnel, the second is a bridge, but there is also a third... a dam! More precisely, the so-called active dam, the idea of ​​which was proposed by specialists from the Russian research association Kosmopoisk. Moreover, this dam is designed to solve not only the transport problem.

Active dam

A great many dams and dams have been built in the world, and colossal experience in the construction of such objects has been accumulated. Recent examples include the construction of a dam to strengthen the coast in the area of ​​the Tuzla Spit and a dam to raise the water level in the northern part of the Aral Sea. The technologies are simpler to implement compared to underground tunneling: filling is usually done either by a directed explosion, or by a string of dump trucks, or by a single sea dredge.

The reference books indicate that the Tatar Strait has a depth of 230 meters. The distance between the banks at the narrowest point (Nevelskoy Strait) is only 7.3 kilometers, and the depth of the fairway there is no more than 8 meters. That is, the sea strait here is no deeper than a large Siberian river.

Washing a dam in the shallow Tatar Strait is not difficult: in one season, just one dredge can do it, says one of the authors of the project, head of the Kosmopoisk association, Vadim Chernobrov. - The proposed location for its construction: the area from the village of Lazarev (mainland) to the village of Pogibi (Sakhalin).

The approximate cost of the project, according to Chernobrov, is about a billion rubles. There is no need to transport soil for filling with dump trucks; the dredge will simply deepen the strait away from the dam. Ordinary road workers will be able to strengthen the walls of the dam, lay an asphalt track along its top and lay the rails in the shortest possible time. Anticipating objections from environmentalists (fish migration will stop) and sailors (shipping will stop), the authors of the project propose installing locks in the dam. These locks are useful not only for the passage of fish and ships, but we will talk about this later.

In addition to the road and locks, it is proposed to build a power plant on the dam. “This is the highlight of the project; the energy will be provided by the dam itself, the generators of which will operate on the principle of a tidal hydroelectric power station!” - says one of the project developers, until recently a researcher at the Institute of the History of Natural Science and Technology. S. I. Vavilova Sergei Alexandrov. The whole trick is to not waste energy when pumping water, but... to extract it. How to achieve this? Very simple. The energy of ebbs and flows will move the water. During high tide the southern locks will be open, and at low tide the northern ones will be open. In the first case, water, flowing into the central reservoir and raising its level to the high tide level, rotates the turbines of the generators. In the second case, water is poured from a central reservoir into the sea, the level of which has dropped during low tide, again rotating the hydraulic turbines.

In fact, an active dam is a simple pump that provides free energy; to service it, you just need to close and open the sluice doors in time, assures Vadim Chernobrov. - In fact, there is no mysticism in this. We simply propose to master one multi-millionth part of the energy that has been wasted for millions of years. It should be noted that an active dam cannot be built anywhere. Many factors must come together (width, depth, current speed, height difference during the ebb and flow of the tides). And the Tatar Strait is attractive because it meets all these parameters.

Climate conditioner

But the main sensation is not even the dam-power plant project itself, but the consequences that its construction could have on the climate of the entire Far Eastern region. The Strait of Tartary is something of a weak link; because of it, the climate of the Russian Far East is harsher than in other regions located at the same latitudes. “Take a look at the map of currents, which basically form the macroclimate of vast territories,” says Sergei Alexandrov. “At the same latitude as our harsh Magadan, there are Western European cities where strawberries ripen freely in the open ground.” As you know, Europe is relatively warm thanks to the warm Gulf Stream, and south of Magadan and Okhotsk there is a cold current that enters the narrow throat of the Tatar Strait and cools the Khabarovsk Territory and Sakhalin. After this, the icy waters of the current move along the coast of the Russian Far East and “freeze” Vladivostok. Vladivostok Bay, despite the fact that it is located almost at the same latitude as Sochi, regularly freezes in winter. Then the current fizzles out, and... Koreans can breathe a sigh of relief. The fact that the Russian Far East has the southernmost permafrost on Earth, and that the heating season is longer than the European one, is a merit of the cold current.

And what’s a shame: the entire coast of the Far East is covered with ice somehow one-sidedly. “Everyone who was in this harsh region in the middle of winter saw this picture: you can’t get to the sea, the ice is in the way, but on the horizon all year round there are ships - not from our frozen ports and not to our cities closed for the winter,” continues Vadim Chernobrov. “There is never ice just a few kilometers from the shore; the warm Kuroshio current already rules there.” This warm sea “river” is 170 km wide, 0.7 km deep, with a surface water temperature of +12 to +28 degrees Celsius, flows in the opposite direction - from south to north at a speed of 0.9-2.9 km/ h. But nowhere does Kuroshio warm the Russian territory - it is reliably cut off from the coast by that same cold northern current.

So the dam will limit the access of cold water from the Sea of ​​Okhotsk and allow the warm current to unfold, which will “creep” along the coast. The project developers believe that this alone will be enough to shorten the heating season in Vladivostok by three months! On the beaches of Vladivostok and Nakhodka, where ice will never be seen again, people will sunbathe almost all year round. This can't be true? “Indeed, it can’t - we haven’t yet “sealed the gap” of the Tatar Strait, into which a cold draft “whistles,” - Vadim Chernobrov is sure. - Separately, it should be noted that the heat of Kuroshio will not “steal” from Japan. How did this current heat It will continue to warm the land of the rising sun. Now it is only assumed that part of the current will not go into the ocean, but will be pumped to the north.” Moreover, relatively warm water will be able to enter the Sea of ​​Okhotsk through the pump dam. Have you heard about the resorts on the southern shore of the Sea of ​​Okhotsk? It even sounds crazy. By the way, the places there are wild, beautiful, and the water is crystal clear.

Are there possible negative side effects? “Yes, when the permafrost melts, the piles of old houses standing on the permafrost may sag, evaporation from swamps and other troubles with which ecologists who predict the onset of global warming have frightened us and continue to frighten us,” predicts Sergei Alexandrov. “But a huge plus of the new active dam in the fact that it can pump water in any direction. It is possible, at the request of ecologists, to extend the process of permafrost thawing for a long period.” After all, with the help of the same system of tidal pumps it is possible to pump in cold water from the north. The tidal pump of an active dam is an air conditioner that operates in all modes (heating, cooling, idling) and generates energy in any of the options, assures Sergei Alexandrov. And even if all this is actually fiction, the idea is beautiful.

Stepan Krivosheev.

“Itogi”, No. 37, 09/11/2006.

Mikhail Lif, General Director of the 6th Expeditionary Unit of Underwater Technical Works, Kaliningrad:

As a hydraulic engineer, I don’t think this idea is crazy. Everything is quite real. The depths in the Tatar Strait are shallow, and the soils are quite acceptable for such work. In addition, the idea of ​​tidal power plants is good. The energy is obtained free of charge, and the structure carries a multifunctional load. After all, the ebb and flow of the tides are constant. Of course, the construction of such a technical structure will require large capital expenditures. By the way, at one time Stalin wanted to build a tunnel under the Tatar Strait. And today, flying over it by plane, you can see the unfinished dam. So why wouldn't there be an active dam there?

The idea of ​​connecting Sakhalin with the mainland with a reliable transport connection, on the one hand, does not lose its relevance, but on the other hand, it is dizzying. But the multi-billion dollar project to create a bridge (tunnel) between the mainland and the island still requires a realistic economic justification.

BRIDGE FOR TWO
The topic of building a railway crossing between Sakhalin and the mainland has again been raised at the state level. The reason was the question about his fate asked to the president of the country on June 15 during the annual “Direct Line”. Then Vladimir Putin recalled that this idea has been around since the beginning of the 20th century: “Iosif Vissarionovich was still thinking about this topic. And even corresponding plans were made, but they were never implemented. Now we are reviving these plans and thinking about this problem.” The head of state did not explain what “reanimation” means.

The project for the transition between Sakhalin and the mainland of Russia, which would present the volume of its financing and payback period, has not yet been prepared, Deputy Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation - Plenipotentiary Representative in the Far Eastern Federal District Yuri Trutnev clarified on July 18 in a conversation with the media. “As for the bridge to Sakhalin. I’m used to talking about projects when they are completed, when we understand the volume of financing, we understand the payback period, but this project does not exist in this form yet,” he said (quoted by TASS). Yuri Trutnev added that this project is of interest to the island’s residents, but at the same time suggested that, as soon as it is ready, it should be brought up for real discussion.

According to Sakhalin Governor Oleg Kozhemyako, the transition from Sakhalin to the mainland could be a great achievement for the region and a breakthrough in its economic development. “Today we deliver almost all consumer goods, construction materials, and food products by sea. These are additional costs. All this falls on the cost of food and services that Sakhalin and Kuril residents receive. The construction of the bridge would have a significant impact on the speed of delivery, the quality of products, and their cost,” he said.

The Khabarovsk Territory is also interested in creating such a facility. A bridge or tunnel crossing to Sakhalin is only one of the components of this project. The length of the entire railway between the Selikhin and Nysh stations, including the structure that will connect both banks of the Nevelskoy Strait, is 582 km. Most of the highway will pass through the Khabarovsk Territory. As noted in the regional government, the arrival of the railway in the Ulchsky and Nikolaevsky districts will make it possible to develop additional reserves of gold, alunite, and brown coal. At the same time, a number of deposits, upon further exploration, can be transferred to the category of industrial facilities. There are also prospects for intensifying timber processing in the region. Harvested timber can be delivered by rail from the northern regions of the region to Amursk (Mylki station), where a cluster for the production of various wood products is being organized.

WHAT AND HOW MUCH
The cost of the Selikhin-Nysh road is tentatively estimated at 400 billion rubles, said Alexander Misharin, First Vice President of Russian Railways, on the sidelines of the Innoprom forum in Yekaterinburg in July. Most likely, he voiced old data. Several years ago, a group of domestic transport institutes developed a draft technical specification for the construction of a railway line. The project for the entire communication, taking into account the bridge and tunnel structure, was estimated at prices at the beginning of 2013 at 386.6 billion and 387 billion rubles, respectively. With almost the same cost of options, the construction timeframes are different: it would take 7.5 years to build the line along with the bridge and 9 years to lay the tunnel.

It seems that the most correct figures, taking into account inflation and the depreciation of the ruble during the last crisis, were announced by Vladimir Putin during the “Direct Line”, but only for one object. According to him, the construction of the bridge will first require about 286 billion rubles. (four years ago this work was estimated at 188.8 billion rubles). The President of the Russian Federation clarified that the cost of a bridge to the island will be lower than crossing the Kerch Strait, and it is possible to build a tunnel instead.

At one time, a consortium of transport institutes, when developing a draft technical specification, considered 14 options for creating a transition between the mainland and Sakhalin, including, in addition to the tunnel, even the possibility of constructing a dam with a culvert. From the point of view of construction, operation and associated risks, the construction of a railway bridge from Cape Lazarev (middle section) to Cape Pogibi was considered the most optimal. This is the narrowest section of the strait between the mainland and the island; the length of the object will be just under 6 km. The length of the normal bridge spans will be 110 m, and over the shipping line - 330 m.

The optimal length of the tunnel is 12.5 km. According to the deputy general director of the Giprostroymost Institute, Alexey Vasilkov, this structure would limit the capacity of the entire line in the event of an increase in cargo traffic from the base traffic size scenario. In turn, Russian Railways noted that it is advisable to carry out transportation through a tunnel crossing of such a length using electric locomotive traction, while the entire Selikhin-Nysh section is planned to be non-electrified. Changing trains' diesel locomotive to an electric locomotive when entering the tunnel and back also means limiting the passage of train traffic plus increasing operating costs and the cost of all transportation of goods and passengers along the new route.

It is worth mentioning that the issue of electrifying the Volochaevka-2 – Komsomolsk – Selikhin – Vanino line is currently being considered. True, depending on the stages of the project, this requires approximately from 64.7 billion to 99.1 billion rubles. And construction work will take at least nine years.

JAPANESE CONNECTIONS
The issue of loading and, as a consequence, payback for the Selikhin – Nysh route is a cornerstone issue. “We currently use three train ferries. In addition, ferry ships carry out road transport. Accordingly, on average, 25-28 cars are transferred to Sakhalin per day. This is a small figure - the freight turnover there (Vanino - Kholmsk crossings - EastRussia commentary) does not exceed 1 million tons,” says First Deputy Head of the Far Eastern Railway Igor Filatov.

At the same time, he continues, the coal industry has now become more active on the island, exporting its products. A large coal mine is being developed near the Pobedino station. The Sakhalinskaya GRES is being built near the Ilyinsk station, which will consume a significant amount of coal. “Therefore, railway transport on Sakhalin will definitely be in demand,” sums up Igor Filatov.

The emergence of a direct railway connection would entail the development of existing port facilities in Poronaysk, Nevelsk, and Korsakov. “In this case, the sea ports of Primorye will be relieved from the transportation of goods going to Sakhalin, Kamchatka and the Magadan region, which will allow them to be effectively used for transshipment of export-import cargo,” says Andrey Serenko, director of the Institute of Transport Construction of the Far Eastern State Transport University.

According to the Institute of Economics and Transport Development, with the advent of the mainland-island transition, which will accelerate the development of the Khabarovsk Territory and the Sakhalin region, transportation along the Selikhin-Nysh line could increase to 9.2 million tons per year. This is not much, so experts suggest attracting transit from Japan to the route leading to the BAM and Trans-Siberian Railway. If Sakhalin is also connected to the Japanese island of Hokkaido (a tunnel is being considered as an object), a transcontinental Japan-Russia-EU corridor will emerge, which will provide an additional influx of cargo, mainly containers, and will help recoup the project. In this case, annual transportation, according to various estimates, can increase to 33-40 million tons.

According to Alexander Misharin, Russian Railways and the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport of Japan have created a working group to develop a project for creating a transport link between the countries, part of which will be communication with Sakhalin.

It is worth saying that, with the support of the Coordination Council for Trans-Siberian Transportation, at the end of 2016, a test shipment of a container from Yokohama to Moscow through the Vostochny port was organized. The operator was TransContainer, using the FESCO service for the sea part of cargo transportation. As noted by the Japanese side following the results of the test trip, both in terms of the cost of the complex service and the total time for transportation, which takes about 20 days, the proposed service turned out to be competitive with that in which delivery is carried out by the circular sea route through the Suez Canal (deep-sea) . Transportation under this scheme from Japan to the Baltic ports takes about 45-50 days. At the same time, the Japanese partners proposed to continue working on the possibility of optimizing the service through Russia, including in terms of time, cost and technology, to determine the most optimal option.

The question is how interested Japan is in direct railway communication, argues independent expert Alexander Redko. Today, most of the cargo flow from the Land of the Rising Sun goes to European countries via deep-sea. And in Japan there is a strong local lobby in the form of sea carriers. Although, the expert continues, certain Japanese circles do have an interest in the transit capabilities of the Russian transport system.

If we talk about the option of transportation through Sakhalin, then additional funds will be needed to develop Japanese cargo traffic, not counting investments in the creation of an underwater passage between the countries. At the first stage, while a 42 km long tunnel is being built through the La Perouse Strait, it is planned to send cargo from the port of Wakkanai by sea to Korsakov with further transshipment to the railway. With the opening of the tunnel structure, it will be necessary to build a railway section from Cape Krillon - the southernmost point of Sakhalin - to the nearest Dachnoe station. This requires at least 43.7 billion rubles.

As you can see, enormous funds will be needed for the Sakhalin project. On the other hand, today various logistics schemes are being developed to ensure transit between Asia and Europe. The management of Russian Railways previously pointed out the need to study the impact of alternative transport corridors on the Sakhalin route, primarily the Chinese Silk Road, as well as the Arctic Northern Sea Route. Scientific institutes need to update their cargo base, taking into account possible competition for promising cargo flows. Russian Transport Minister Maxim Sokolov also spoke about the need to calculate the future volume of traffic that will go from Japan in transit through Russia to Europe and back.

There is time for research. In the “Transport Strategy of the Russian Federation”, approved by a decree of the Government of the Russian Federation in July 2014, the main measures for the innovative option provide for the construction of the Selikhin - Nysh line in the period after... 2030.

Russia invited Japan to seriously consider the possibility of building a road-railway crossing that would connect Sakhalin and Hokkaido. The initiative was taken by First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Igor Shuvalov.

In his opinion, the project will be beneficial to both countries: Russia will have the opportunity to use its railway infrastructure more efficiently, and Japan “will become a continental power.”

“We seriously suggest that our Japanese partners consider the possibility of building a mixed road-rail crossing from Hokkaido to the southern part of Sakhalin. We are close to starting our part of the work of bringing the railway to the Pacific coast and building this complex transition from the mainland to Sakhalin. In this case, this will provide an additional opportunity to use our railway infrastructure, and Japan will become a continental power,” Shuvalov said.

The official also expressed confidence that this project will not require significant investments if new technologies are used in its implementation.

Ministers will discuss

The head of the Russian Ministry of Transport, Maxim Sokolov, has already expressed his readiness to discuss the potential project with his Japanese colleagues. He noted that negotiations could take place this year.

“I plan to spend this year with my counterpart, the Minister of Land and Infrastructure of Japan (Koishi Yoshida. - RT), relevant negotiations on this topic,” TASS quotes Sokolov.

At the same time, the minister said that at the moment there are not even preliminary estimates of the investments that will be required to implement the project. “To do this, it is necessary, first of all, to reach an agreement with our Japanese partners. This will be a project of both countries,” said the head of the Ministry of Transport.

This project may be implemented already in the first half of the 2020s.

From the mainland to Sakhalin

In addition, another project is currently being discussed in Russia - the construction of a bridge from the Russian mainland to Sakhalin. Its implementation may require about 500 billion rubles.

“The total volume, in accordance with the preliminary feasibility study (and now additional research work is underway), will be about 500 billion rubles in base 2013 prices,” Maxim Sokolov told TASS.

He also added that “as part of the next budget cycle for the development of the federal target program and the state program for the development of the transport system for the next decade,” both budgetary and extra-budgetary sources of funding will be provided.

The minister explained the high cost of the project by saying that it is planned not only to build a bridge, but also to build access roads from Komsomolsk-on-Amur to the station on the territory of Sakhalin.

“From the very crossing in the area of ​​the Nevelskoy Strait - this is the shortest isthmus between the mainland and Sakhalin Island within the entire Tatar Strait, its length is only 7 km - it is necessary to build access roads from Komsomolsk-on-Amur to the station on the territory of Sakhalin. The length of these access roads is over 500 km,” Sokolov said.

Connecting two islands

The possibility of a transport link between Sakhalin and Hokkaido was previously announced by First Vice-President of Russian Railways Alexander Misharin. In particular, he noted that Russian Railways and the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport of Japan have already created a working group to discuss this issue.

At the same time, Misharin called the initial construction of the transition between Sakhalin and the mainland an important condition for the implementation of the project.

“This topic has been discussed for many years, but during this period Russian Railways, together with the Ministry of Transport, have worked to justify investments and prepare technical solutions for the land crossing from the mainland to Sakhalin Island - this is an important and indispensable condition for the implementation of this project,” said the first vice president RZD TASS.

Russian Deputy Minister of Transport Alexey Tsydenov previously called land communication between Russia and Japan promising. At that moment, two options were being studied - a tunnel and a bridge.

Currently, the Russian island of Sakhalin and the Japanese island of Hokkaido, which have a railway network, are separated by the La Perouse Strait. The length of the strait is 94 km, the width at the narrowest part is 43 km.

Experts agree that the implementation of the land crossing could cost up to 1 trillion rubles. In general, taking into account design and survey work, the implementation of the project can take from 3 to 5 years.

Note that so far the longest bridge in Russia is the Crimean Bridge. Its length upon completion will be 19 km. The route begins on the Taman Peninsula, passes along a 5-kilometer dam and Tuzla Island, crosses the Kerch Strait, skirting Cape Ak-Burun from the north, and reaches the Crimean coast.

Island Japan, with the help of Russia, is capable of becoming a continental power. At least, this is exactly the phrase Deputy Prime Minister Shuvalov used when speaking about the possibility of building a bridge between Sakhalin and Hokkaido. But if the meaning of this gigantic project for Moscow is to some extent visible, then for Tokyo its effect is far from so obvious.

Russia and Japan are discussing the construction of a bridge between Hokkaido and Sakhalin, said First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov.

“We seriously suggest that our Japanese partners consider the construction of a mixed road-rail crossing from Hokkaido to the southern part of Sakhalin. At the same time, we are close to starting our part of the work - bringing the railway to the Pacific coast and building the same complex transition from the mainland to Sakhalin. In this case, this will provide additional opportunities to use our railway infrastructure, and Japan will become a continental power,” said the First Deputy Prime Minister, speaking at the economic forum in Vladivostok, Interfax reports.

“Is it possible to do this? Perhaps, with modern technology, it is not even that expensive. And we are seriously discussing this with our Japanese partners,” he added.

Shuvalov is talking about two bridges. One should connect Sakhalin Island with the mainland through the Nevelskoy Strait, the other - Sakhalin Island with the Japanese island of Hokkaido through the La Perouse Strait.

The idea of ​​this project has been discussed for a very long time. They dreamed of connecting Sakhalin with the mainland even under Stalin. At the time, these plans looked fantastic, but modern technology has changed a lot. Russia has already built a bridge to Russky Island in Vladivostok and is already very close to the appearance of the Kerch Bridge connecting the Crimean peninsula with mainland Russia. Various options for connecting Sakhalin with the mainland were discussed: from the possibility of building a tunnel or dam with a shipping canal to a bridge crossing in various combinations.

Why was the decision and construction of the Kerch Bridge so quick, but the Sakhalin-mainland bridge has not yet been built? The problem is the economy. With the Crimean Bridge in this regard, everything is very clear - it will become a real impetus for the economic development of the peninsula, and no one doubts the prospects for traffic growth. And, of course, connecting Crimea with the rest of Russia is extremely important from a political point of view.

The appearance of the mainland-island transition will undoubtedly accelerate the development of the Khabarovsk Territory and the Sakhalin Region, this will mean new jobs, tax revenues, etc. Now all goods and food products are delivered to Sakhalin by sea, so their cost is significantly higher than the Russian average. However, Sakhalin is not Crimea; local cargo turnover is much more modest. The appearance of a bridge or tunnel to the mainland will increase transportation along the Selikhin-Nysh line to 9.2 million tons per year. Considering the cost of the bridge, this is not enough.

The bridge crossing across the Nevelskoy Strait itself will cost 286 billion rubles, which is almost 60 billion more than the construction of the Kerch Bridge (228 billion rubles). However, this is not the final cost. As part of the project, it is planned to build a railway from the Selizin station, on the Baikal-Amur Mainline near the city of Komsomolsk-on-Amur, to the Nysh station, located on Sakhalin Island. Taking this into account, the total cost of the project could rise to 400 billion rubles or even more.

If Sakhalin is connected not only to the Russian mainland, but also to the Japanese island of Hokkaido, then a Japan-Russia-EU transport corridor will be created. In this case, transportation could increase several times – up to 33-40 million tons per year, but that’s another conversation. In this situation, the project can have an economic effect not only for the Sakhalin region and Khabarovsk Territory, but also for the whole of Russia. And it may even pay off, albeit after decades.

Technically, the task of building a bridge across the La Perouse Strait, although not easy, can be solved with modern technologies, says Alexey Kalachev from Finam Group of Companies. This will be a bridge almost 43 km long, but China has experience in building longer bridges. Another thing is that there are no ocean structures of such length in the world, especially in the harsh conditions of the Sea of ​​​​Okhotsk, Kalachev notes. The average depth in the strait is 20-40 meters, the maximum is 118. In winter, the strait is covered with ice.

But the main obstacle is the high cost. The Sakhalin-Hokkaido bridge was estimated at 400-500 billion rubles back in 2013, and now, Kalachev says, it’s probably one and a half to two times more. Considering that the construction of the Sakhalin-mainland crossing will also be required, the final cost of the project may turn out to be many times higher. That is, in total, the two bridges may require more than 1 trillion rubles, and Russia will have to take on a significant part.

And it is unclear where Russia will be able to get hundreds of billions of rubles for the construction of these bridges, even if the funding is divided in half with Japan. Russia is currently spending a lot on infrastructure in preparation for the World Cup and the construction of a bridge to Crimea. “In addition, the “pot” of the combined Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund simply does not have such capacity and will not have it in the coming years. All expense items have already been booked in advance,” says Anna Bodrova from Alpari.

But the most important thing is that,

Japan's interest in this project is not as obvious as Russia's.

Japan receives direct rail access to all countries of Eurasia. It is expected that this route for delivering cargo to Europe will be half as long, and delivery times will be reduced by three times. Thus, by sea, cargo travels 21 thousand km in 40 days, and, for example, by Trans-Siberian Railway through the port of Vostochny, the delivery time is reduced to 18 days.

However, it is more efficient to transport large loads over long distances by sea. “A sea container ship can accommodate from 260 (the smallest) to 18 thousand TEU (standard 20-foot containers). There are already 4 ships with a capacity of 21,000 TEU under construction in the world. And you won’t be able to load more than 140 of these containers onto the longest freight train. It’s faster by train, but by sea it’s more and cheaper per unit of goods,” says Alexey Kalachev. Rail freight transportation, and even more so road freight, can only be more efficient over shorter distances.

“It is, of course, more convenient to ensure Japan’s cargo turnover with Sakhalin by direct rail links than by sea. However, it is unlikely that its volume will be able to recoup such enormous costs that this project will require,” Kalachev doubts. Japan is not yet mature enough to implement this idea, he concludes.

“If you have money, such a bridge can be built, and it will stand as majestic as the bridge to Russky Island, for example. But the demand for such infrastructure is very low, and Moscow cannot afford the price for its ambitions,” agrees Bodrova.

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